Middle-income demand moved to the city fringe — and the core stalls above $4k psf.
New-launch % sold, monthly velocity, median psf and resale compression — read together — show where demand is actually going, and where developers will quietly blink.
Figure 1
New-launch absorption — city fringe (RCR) vs core above $4,000 psf (CCR)
URA developer sales · examples: Emerald of Katong 100%, Tembusu Grand 99%, Grand Dunman 90%; Skywaters ~2% at $5,841 psf
The RCR resistance ceiling is a myth; the CCR ceiling above $4k psf is real.
City-fringe launches are clearing at 90–100% as buyers priced out of the suburbs move up — so the next RCR launch above $2,700 psf faces less resistance than agents warn. Meanwhile core demand reliably dies above ~$4,000 psf: Skywaters sat near 2% absorbed at $5,841 psf. Any 2026 CCR launch chasing $4,500+ psf at volume is pricing for demand that is not there yet.
POV Guy take: track monthly absorption, not launch-day headlines. It tells you which projects developers will quietly sweeten with incentives, and which price bands are actually real.
Full breakdown — the data behind it
The RCR squeeze is structural, not narrative.
- Grand Dunman 90% sold. Tembusu Grand 99%. The Continuum 88%. Emerald of Katong 100%.
- Bloomsbury Residences (D05 RCR): 80% and accelerating — 11 → 12 → 19 units sold per month.
- Middle-income buyers have exhausted OCR options. RCR is absorbing them at pace.
The next RCR launch above $2,700 psf won't face the resistance agents are warning about. The resistance ceiling is a 2023 myth. Buyers waiting for RCR to correct are waiting for a correction supply data doesn't support.
CCR demand exists — but it dies above $4,000 psf.
- Skywaters Residences (D01): 2% absorbed at $5,841 psf. Stale for years.
- Upperhouse at Orchard: 79% sold at $3,807 psf. Skye at Holland: 100% at $3,141 psf.
- The pattern holds across every CCR project: sub-$4K moves, above $5K stalls.
Skywaters is the canary, not an outlier. Any 2026 CCR launch attempting to clear $4,500+ psf at volume is pricing for demand that doesn't exist yet. The CCR buyer pool above $5K psf is smaller than developers are pricing for.
Newport Residences: the developer blinked. Every D02 launch is watching.
- Launched July 2025 at $3,344 psf. Peaked $4,185 psf in Jan 2026. Now back to $3,335 psf.
- Sales velocity collapsed: 132 → 32 → 22 units per month. A D02 developer couldn't hold its own price 6 months in.
- Every 2026 D02 CCR launch is entering a market where the prior benchmark proved unsustainable.
Buyers in this band shouldn't anchor to Jan 2026 peaks — those prices didn't clear. Sellers in D02 who bought late 2025 are sitting on a margin problem. The canary sang; most buyers weren't listening.
The EC price ceiling is gone. $2,000 psf is the new floor, not the ceiling.
- Coastal Cabana: 504 units sold in first month at $1,790 psf. Otto Place: $1,714 psf.
- Aurelle of Tampines: $2,052 psf — and 100% sold. The "$2K psf EC" rule died quietly in Q1 2026.
- Any EC launching below $1,800 psf is now underpriced relative to demonstrated demand.
Anyone still quoting the EC ceiling is working from 2023 rules. Upcoming EC launches will attempt $2,100–2,300 psf. Buyers who treat $2K as outrageous have miscalibrated — they'll buy at $2,300 in 2027 anyway.
Resale OCR condos below $2M are being absorbed by HDB upgraders faster than inventory replenishes.
- HDB sellers with $600K+ net proceeds are buying $1.2M–$1.8M resale condos — the gap between OCR resale and new launch is compressing.
- Median psf for OCR resale condos has risen ~12% in 12 months, faster than national PPI.
- The "wait for resale to be cheaper" logic has inverted in high-demand OCR neighbourhoods.
Resale vs new launch is no longer a straightforward discount calculation. In Clementi, Jurong, Woodlands, and Tampines corridors, resale condos are appreciating faster than their new launch equivalents. Upgraders who waited for resale "value" are finding the discount has closed.
380 units across 6 projects where developers will quietly blink in Q3 2026.
- TMW Maxwell 8%, Skywaters 2%, Sophia Regency 0%, The Hillshore 10% absorbed.
- Meyer Blue: 89% but velocity has stalled 3 consecutive months. Lentoria: same stall pattern on the last tranche.
- Developers won't announce discounts — they'll adjust incentives, rebates, and deferred payment schemes.
Stale inventory is where 2026's quiet discounting will happen. A buyer tracking absorption monthly will know exactly when a developer blinks. A buyer relying on the developer's sales team will pay full brochure price for the same unit.
Common questions
Are city-fringe (RCR) condos still selling well in Singapore?
Yes. Recent RCR launches have absorbed strongly — for example Emerald of Katong (100%), Tembusu Grand (99%) and Grand Dunman (90%) — as buyers priced out of the suburbs (OCR) move up. Demand in the RCR price band has held better than the 2023-era “resistance ceiling” narrative suggested.
Why are some prime (CCR) condo launches selling slowly?
Core Central Region demand has consistently stalled above roughly $4,000 psf. Projects priced well beyond that — such as Skywaters Residences at about $5,841 psf — have seen very low absorption (around 2%). Sub-$4,000 psf CCR projects move; aggressively priced ones sit, so buyers should not anchor to peak asking prices that never cleared.