EXIT LIQUIDITY MAP · MOP WAVES 2026–2031

Will there be buyers
when you sell?

Every condo exit needs a buyer — and in the suburbs, that buyer is usually an HDB upgrader who just cleared MOP. We mapped all 93,000 flats reaching MOP between 2026 and 2031 against every upcoming and recently launched condo, then tested what 30 years of URA data says it does to your exit. The waves are not where most people think.

—HDB flats reaching MOP 2026–2031, island-wide
13.1%of ALL HDB resales since 1990 were owners selling at flat age 5–7 — the fresh-MOP window
86.5%of 230,378 matched condo exits since 1995 were profitable · median hold 6.5 yrs
—launches scored: upcoming pipeline + recent launches with balance units
36 launches. Their exit verdicts.
All locked right now.
The MOP wave heat map · buyer catchments per launch · which projects have exit runway and which are crowded. One click away.
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Exit Liquidity Map — MOP Waves 2026–2031

36 launches. Every wave. Every verdict.
All yours. Right now.

The full interactive map: where 93,000 upgrader households ripen, which launches sit in their path, and which face a crowded exit. The wave schedule serious owners time their exit against.

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Exit-runway board — all 36 launches

Ranked by modelled exit liquidity: the upgrader wave in each catchment vs the supply it competes with. The verdict tells you the shape — what it means for your unit, your timeline and your price is a conversation. That part's free too.

#ProjectDistStatus MOP units ≤4km ’26–’31Competing ≤4km MRTExit verdictFull verdict

What the data actually shows

We don't hide the method. Three findings from 606,807 private transactions (1995–2026) and 974,557 HDB resales (1990–2026). We only call something a finding when the odds of it being a coincidence are low — each card tells you how confident to be.

No real linkMOP waves do NOT sell out launches faster. Across 488 launches since 2010, nearby MOP waves made no reliable difference to how fast the launch sold — developers price to move, whatever the wave is doing. The pattern was weak enough that it could easily be random chance. stat note: p = 0.27
Strong evidenceThe wave shows up in YOUR exit. Owners in projects with more MOP flats ripening nearby earned measurably higher returns per year when they resold (409 projects, matched buy–sell records). If the wave truly had no effect, a pattern this strong would appear by luck only ~2 times in 100. stat note: p = 0.017
Very strong evidencePrimary school within 1km, and family-sized units. These two lifted exit returns across the whole dataset — the 3-bedroom-and-larger effect is the strongest single factor we found. Odds this is a fluke: about 1 in 1,000. MRT and mall distance pointed the right way but weren't conclusive. stat note: p = 0.001

Method & honest limitations

  • The arcs are modelled catchments, not tracked moves. No public dataset links an HDB seller to their condo purchase. Arcs show each launch's likely upgrader source towns — MOP units weighted by distance — calibrated on 30 years of history.
  • MOP year = block completion year + 5 (HDB Property Information, 10,752 residential blocks). Actual MOP runs from key collection, so timing is accurate to within months, not days.
  • Catchments use town centroids, not block-level positions. Wave sizes are town-level truth; distances are approximations.
  • The 2031 wave is undercounted until HDB finishes publishing 2026 completions.
  • New-sale counts run ~10% below headline figures (caveat lodgement lag in REALIS data). Fine for patterns, not for quoting exact launch-weekend numbers.
  • Sources: URA REALIS via Huttons · data.gov.sg (HDB resale 1990–2026, HDB Property Information, MOE school directory) · OneMap · URA GLS. Scores are relative percentiles across the scored set, not guarantees.

Questions people ask

What is a MOP wave and why does it matter for my exit?
HDB owners must occupy their flat for 5 years before they can sell. When a town's BTO flats complete together, a wave of owners becomes free to sell and upgrade ~5 years later. 2026–2031 sees ~93,000 flats reach MOP — led by Tengah, Tampines and Punggol. These upgraders are the largest buyer pool for suburban condo resales. If your condo's catchment has a wave ripening when you plan to sell, you have buyers. If it doesn't — or if too much new supply lands at the same time — you're negotiating from the weak side.
Does a nearby MOP wave make a new launch sell faster?
No — that's the surprise. Catchment MOP pressure had no significant effect on launch absorption speed (p=0.27, 488 launches). It shows up later: in the exit returns of owners who resell into the wave (p=0.017). The wave doesn't help the developer. It helps you — if you time it.
Are the flow arrows real household moves?
No. They're modelled catchments — each launch's likely upgrader source towns, weighted by MOP units and distance, calibrated on 30 years of transactions. No public data tracks individual HDB→condo moves, and anyone who claims otherwise is guessing too.
My condo isn't on the list. Can you run it?
Yes — the scored list covers the current launch pipeline and recent launches, but the same catchment model runs on any project. WhatsApp me the project name and your rough exit timeline, and I'll run your block's numbers against the wave schedule.

Your exit is a timing decision. Make it with the wave schedule in hand.

15 minutes. Your project (or shortlist), the MOP waves in its catchment, the supply landing beside it, and the window the data points to. No scripts, no pressure — just the numbers.

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